Is The Bubble Going To Burst ?
Posted February 20, 2013 - 12:23 AM
We're figuring, yup, it'll pop. Get back to basics, fill the cold room, use the grid if you have to but hook up a wood stove, and if you can, learn about and apply solar. Can't really see it being as big as the "great depression", but it'll sure hurt us little guys long before the big guys squeal!
- Alc and boyscout862 have said thanks
Posted February 20, 2013 - 06:03 AM
My financial advisor told me recently that a correction was due. That is not the same as a crash nor should it cause a great depression.
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Posted February 20, 2013 - 07:25 AM
To me this is one of the most confusing times I have seen in my life. Our industry has been severely damaged by the housing crash, all the people we talk to says it will slowly get better but never be as good as it was (the building craze of the late 90's and early-mid 2000's).
I sold some of my stock after the election in my retirement because I felt with the european market was in big trouble and the new additional costs the US companies were going to take in health cost, regulations, etc ......along with an already fairly stagnant economy would make you think it could not hold up. If all these factors did hit the market, I wanted to be able to have some money on hand that in an emergency I could get. (we are not talking big money so don;t get excited)
What I am seeing and have seen for over a year, is "have's and have not's"........some of my guys business's are doing pretty well while others right down the street are suffering- I am seeing those who were not heavy in debt and willing to change their business stategy doing okay (if in the right location, etc). I do see more building in some areas.....but housing being built is sporadic.....some areas have sold the "good" and "wanted" houses and now rebuilding.....others still selling off old inventory....rates are low so people who can are trying to take advantage of the low rates while they can. In the south, I think the days of the big expensive houses are numbered.....there will always be some built, but my gut feeling is this next generation is going to what more than an expensive house payment to chase. Especially if we see interest rates above 5-7%. All this building of houses and commercial buildings along with the increased auto sales is good but not great.
So .....seeing an increase in housing and some commercial building is plus....but I know we are hearing many of the mid size companies are figuring the new health care bill is going to cost them x amount of dollars.....all I have talked to say they have no margins now...so they will either have to increase their prices and/or lay off some people.....probably a combination of both. That means higher prices and possibly more people out of jobs. IF this is the case....is it enough to slow the economy back down??......So how is this going to affect us in the end of 2013 and into 2014??
To me the increase in sales in the auto industry was a no brainer.....we all can not drive 10-12 year old cars with 300,000 . Eventually people were going to start buying again.....out of neccessity more than just being tired of their current model. I own 5 cars....all have 100,000 plus.....eventually we will replace them.....just not anytime soon unless we have to.
the last 4 years have put probably put 40-50% of my customers and competitors out of the business.....the rest are probably at 50% capacity and truthfully for the current market and the projected market we are probably closer to the right ratio for supply and demand.
Whether we ever get back to our original sizes will be determined by the market and how well we respond to it. I do think many of the business out there today are leaner and meaner, if the market does come back the opportunity to thrive and do well is there.
In the mid 80's my industry had a freeze, it literally changed the buying habits and growing processes of the industry. I keep telling my customers something big like that is happening now.....not sure what it is....but with this type of turmoil in the business cycle, something is always effected. We just got to figure out what that is and make sure we are on board to ride the next wave.
Some economist are saying 2014 is going to be good......others are saying just the opposite.......sure wish I had genie in a bottle right now.
I could sleep alot better with just a positive outlook with a good feeling it was going to continue to move forward at what ever pace it would be.....for now....I am not so sure.
I will say all the tradeshows I displayed at this winter were well attended and people were more positive. I hope and pray that is a good sign.
Sorry I am a long winded, son of a preacher man, salesman........ this and 99cents will get you a coffee that is about all it is worth
- Alc, JDBrian, boyscout862 and 1 other said thanks
Posted February 20, 2013 - 07:37 AM
Yes the bubble is gonna pop and soon also look for inflation to make a comeback in a big way as well,out of respect for our no politics policy I won't comment any further.........but boy I'd sure like to.
- DougT, Alc, boyscout862 and 1 other said thanks
Posted February 20, 2013 - 09:52 AM
I'm waiting for interest rates on homes to spike.. Not looking forward to it but i can see it coming..
- Alc said thank you
Posted February 20, 2013 - 10:28 AM
Remember when you would get close or to 5% in a passbook savings account ? I think when we borrowed money for our lot in the early eighties it was 12% !!
- Team_Green said thank you
Posted February 20, 2013 - 11:27 AM
I remember getting interest on savings accounts. I called a TV news show on investing last year for advice on what to put a windfall into for about two years. His best answer, after a short laugh, was a CD. I hope this bubble it tough enough to stay for a while longer.
- Alc said thank you
Posted February 20, 2013 - 02:49 PM
I hope this bubble it tough enough to stay for a while longer.
Me too ! So many people are out of work already and if the economy tanks again I'm not sure what the country (make that whole world ) will offer them as far as a live like we had .
Posted February 22, 2013 - 11:55 PM
Is the bubble gonna burst? you betcha, when is the question,, if there isnt blood in the streets there is no reason to buy back in. Unfortunately for those who hold or should I say are forced to hold all their retierment eggs in someone elses basket its not a fun ride whatsoever, one can go from being well funded into retirement to needing to take on a job at 65+ to survive in very short order. To be totally honest I as a trader,,, yes Im one of those evil speculators you read about,, watched in 08 in TOTAL disgust as the "trustees/professionals" of investors retirement accounts held the positions and never took profit to buy back in bigger at the bottom and let all that profit from YEARS of investment go into the toilet for the investor,, to me it was an unspeakable injustice done to the retirement accounts of a nation (guess who wrote the regulations and who exploited them and you have your partners in crime). All the signs were there in full view, even a "non pro" like myself knew it was over and was "out" before the crash. Why didn't these so called "pros" know, they knew what was gonna happen you can put your cash on it, they because of regulations likely couldnt do anything and even if they could why should they, lots of coin got "legally" redistributed in plain view and no "crime" was committed? Yes I know sounds kinda conspiracy theoryish bit it is what it is.
I decided long ago that if anyone was gonna "play" with and lose my cash it was gonna be me,, Those guys in the investment outfits are just like the people we all work with,,, many just collecting a paycheck, little care about how well they do their job, you know the types every place has em, yet we hand over our hard earned cash in hopes they turn a profit, good luck with that.
- Alc said thank you
Posted February 23, 2013 - 01:32 AM
Personally, I'm going into "hedge funds". I'm going to hurt myself on somebody's hedge and sue 'em!
- js5020 said thank you